On December 4, Taiwan’s Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation and the Netherlands’ NXP Semiconductors broke ground for a new US$7.8 billion ($10.5 billion) wafer manufacturing facility in Tampines. The facility, owned by their joint venture company VisionPower Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (VSMC), is set to begin initial production in 2027 and is expected to produce 55,000 wafers per month by 2029. This new facility will create about 1,500 jobs.
VSMC is not the only semiconductor company expanding in Singapore. In March, Japan’s Toppan Holdings started construction on a new factory in Jurong Lake District. This plant will produce semiconductor packaging materials and is said to be invested with an estimated $450 million.
These expansions reflect the commitment of chipmakers and related businesses to establish new production plants and research and development campuses in Singapore. According to Leonard Tay, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, this is prompted by the need to boost their supply chain resilience. He adds that Singapore continues to be a global production hub for semiconductors and chips due to its stability amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions in other parts of the world.
The semiconductor industry is recovering from a downturn in 2023, which was caused by softer demand and higher supply. According to research by London-based consultancy Omdia, the industry experienced a 26% year-on-year revenue increase for the first three quarters of 2024. This is a reversal from the previous year when revenue fell 9% to US$544.8 billion for the whole of 2023.
The rebound has had a positive impact on Singapore’s manufacturing sector. After a slow start to the year with two consecutive quarters of contraction, manufacturing output grew 11% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024. The electronics cluster, driven by strong demand for smartphone and PC semiconductor chips, was the main contributor to this growth, according to data from the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
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While industrial property rents in Singapore have been on the rise, with 16 consecutive quarters of growth recorded in the JTC All Industrial Rental Index since the third quarter of 2020, the momentum has slowed down. Compared to the 8.9% increase in 2023, the growth rate has been progressively slowing down. In the first, second and third quarters of 2024, the index grew by 1.7%, 1%, and 0.3% respectively.
This plateauing of rents reflects a cautious sentiment among occupiers due to an uncertain macroeconomic environment. According to Catherine He, Colliers’ head of research for Singapore, occupiers have been more prudent in light of budget constraints and have been valuing flexibility to adapt to changing market dynamics. Tricia Song, head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia at CBRE, adds that consolidation in the third-party logistics and e-commerce space has also contributed to growing occupier resistance this year.
However, the impact of these factors has varied across different segments of industrial property. Multiple-user factories and warehouses have remained relatively resilient, recording rental growth in the first three quarters of the year, supported by stable occupancy rates.
On the other hand, the single-user factory segment experienced softer demand, resulting in both rental and occupancy rates declining by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2024. This marks the first rental decline since the third quarter of 2020. Additionally, business park rents also dipped, falling by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the same period, despite a slight increase in occupancy. This decrease in rents extends the 0.1% quarter-on-quarter decline recorded in the second quarter of 2024.
The industrial sales market has been livelier compared to leasing activity. After a slow start to the year, activity picked up in the second quarter, with several significant transactions taking place. These include the sales of BHL Factories at 2C Mandai Estate for $74 million in May, Kian Ann Building at 7 Changi South Lane for $63 million in June, and a single-user factory at 47 Pandan Road for $36 million in April.
The market further received a boost in the third quarter. In August, a joint venture between private equity firm Warburg Pincus and Lendlease Group acquired a $1.6 billion portfolio of seven industrial assets from Soilbuild Business Space REIT, owned by Soilbuild Group and Blackstone. Other significant deals took place in the third quarter of 2024, including ESR-Logos REIT’s purchase of a 51% stake in an industrial site at 20 Tuas South Avenue 14 for $428.4 million and Ho Bee Land’s sale of a 49% stake in Elementum, a biomedical sciences development at 1 North Buona Vista Link, to a Brunei sovereign wealth fund for $272 million.
These deals resulted in a sevenfold increase in industrial property sales to $2.45 billion in the third quarter of 2024, according to Alan Cheong, executive director of research and consultancy at Savills Singapore. In a November research report, Savills attributed this surge in transactions to improved sentiment following the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September, in addition to a better performing manufacturing sector.
However, Cheong believes that the significant industrial deals seen in the third quarter of 2024 are likely to be a one-off. He adds that while one or two more large transactions may take place in 2025, they would be significantly lower compared to the third quarter of 2024.
Despite the strong performance in the last quarter, the supply-demand imbalance in the industrial property market in Singapore is expected to persist, with the influx of new supply and weaker demand resulting in slower pre-commitment and occupancy rates in upcoming and existing developments. According to Colliers’ He, this will likely lead to a narrowing of rental and price growth in the near term.
In its third quarter 2024 market report published in October, JTC estimated that about 0.2 million square meters of new industrial space will be completed in the fourth quarter. The new supply, targeted for completion in 2025, is almost double the average annual new supply over the past three years. The majority of this new supply is single-user factory space (0.74 million sqm) and warehouse space (0.65 million sqm).
According to He, this influx of new supply, coupled with weaker demand, is expected to result in a supply-demand imbalance, leading to slower pre-commitment and occupancy rates at upcoming and existing developments. She expects the overall industrial rental growth to range between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2025, stabilizing from the 8.9% growth recorded the previous year. Similarly, price growth is anticipated to ease from 5.1% in 2023 to between 1% and 2% this year, and it may slow down further to between 0% and 2% in 2025.
Despite the more muted outlook, demand remains strong for multiple-user factory space, centrally located food factories, and logistics space in preferred locations. According to Cheong, these segments are expected to experience rental growth of up to 3% this year before tapering down to between 0% and 2% in 2025. Additionally, the electronics and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to continue performing well and attracting investments. CBRE’s Song adds that if the US Federal Reserve continues cutting lending rates in 2025, this could encourage more companies to deploy capex to pursue growth and expansion.
Knight Frank’s Tay is also optimistic about the semiconductor industry, which is expected to continue driving demand for industrial real estate in Singapore, supported by the growing demand for electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. He adds that data centres will also play a significant role in the industrial sector, with plans to increase capacity by at least 300 megawatts as part of the Green Data Centre Roadmap launched in May 2024.
On the other hand, business park rents are expected to continue facing pressure as companies downsize their footprint to cut costs or optimize workspace in response to flexible working arrangements. According to Savills, rents could soften by 3% to 5% this year. However, demand for newer facilities in central locations is expected to remain resilient, providing some support to the segment.…