HDB location: $528,000 for 3-room HDB flat near East Coast parkHDB location: $620,000 for a 3-room HDB flat in Telok Blangah Heights
On January 2, the HDB released its flash estimates for the 4th quarter of 2024, which showed that resale flat prices had increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the HDB resale segment, although it is slightly slower than the 2.7% q-o-q growth recorded in the previous quarter.
According to the estimates, HDB resale prices saw a 9.6% increase in 2024, which is double the 4.9% growth seen in 2023. However, this is still lower than the 10.4% price increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021, as stated by Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.
OrangeTee noted that the HDB caveat data from data.gov.sg, downloaded on January 2 at 8:15 am, showed a slowdown in price growth for certain types of flats. For instance, the median price of four-room flats saw a q-o-q increase of 2.5% in 4Q2024, which is slower than the 3.4% growth in 3Q2024. Similar slowdowns were seen in two-room flats and executive flats, with price increases of 2% and 1.2% respectively in 4Q2024, compared to 3.9% and 1.7% in the previous quarter.
On the other hand, prices for five-room flats saw a faster growth of 3.2% in 4Q2024, compared to the 1.2% increase in 3Q2024.
In terms of resale volume, it declined by 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 4Q2024 to 6,314 units, down from 6,547 transactions in 4Q2023. This represents a drop of 22.5% q-o-q from 8,142 units in 3Q2024. Sun attributed this decline to the launch of over 8,500 new flats by HDB in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, with many of these units located in prime and desirable locations. This diverted demand away from the resale market and towards the BTO market, she explained. Additionally, sales also tend to slow down during the year-end school holidays when many Singaporeans travel abroad, resulting in a decrease in house viewings and sales activities.
However, Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, attributed the slower pace of growth in 4Q2024 to the government’s intervention in August 2024, when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. According to her, the weaker sales and slower growth in the HDB resale price index in 4Q2024 indicates that the August 2024 measures are likely having an effect on the market.
In 2024, the total resale volume was 28,876 units, which is 8% higher than the 26,735 units recorded in 2023 and the 27,896 units in 2022. However, it is still lower than the peak of 31,017 units in 2021.
The government’s property cooling measures are an important factor to consider when making a condominium investment in Singapore. Over time, the Singaporean government has implemented various measures to prevent speculative purchasing and maintain a steady real estate market. One such measure is the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which requires higher taxes for foreign buyers and individuals purchasing multiple properties. While these measures may affect the immediate profitability of condo investments, they also promote the long-term stability of the market, creating a more secure investment climate. Additionally, being part of Singapore Projects, these measures further demonstrate the government’s commitment to ensuring a sustainable and resilient property market for both investors and residents.
The decline in resale transactions also led to a decrease in million-dollar flat transactions to 283 units in 4Q2024, down from 331 units in 3Q2024. Despite the drop, the total number of million-dollar transactions reached a record high of 1,033 units in 2024, which is more than double the 469 million-dollar transactions recorded in the previous year, as noted by OrangeTee’s Sun.
According to HDB data, the highest number of million-dollar resale flats deals in 4Q2024 were in Toa Payoh town, with 58 transactions. Among these, 20 were for four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which had recently reached the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).
Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, believes that the new classification of Plus and Prime classification BTO flats may have influenced the increase in homebuyers seeking out HDB resale homes in central locations. These buyers are not willing to accept the resale restrictions, such as a 10-year MOP, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale, and resale income cap on future buyers.
OrangeTee expects HDB resale prices to continue rising in 2025, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years. Sun adds that in many areas, prices have already reached new highs, raising concerns of affordability for potential buyers. She also expects the ongoing supply of BTO flats to help moderate price growth in the secondary market, but this will depend on the number of BTO flats released by the government in the coming years.
In February 2025, HDB will launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 flats across various towns, according to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. He also notes that some prospective resale flat buyers may have decided to wait and try their luck with the SBF exercise.
In terms of interest rates, Lim believes they could go lower in 2025, allowing buyers to take on a larger loan amount to purchase a new home. This may lead some buyers to consider an executive condo (EC) or resale condo. Huttons projects that HDB resale transactions will end the year at 26,000 to 28,000, with resale flat prices likely to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8%.…