HDB resale property prices continued its steady climb in the last quarter of 2024, rising by 2.6% compared to the third quarter. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the resale market, according to the latest data published by HDB on Jan 24. The cumulative price increase for the whole of 2024 has now reached 9.7%. This is nearly double the 4.9% increase seen in 2023.
The uptick in prices can largely be attributed to the limited supply of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2024, according to Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research & data analytics at SRI. This has created some upward pressure on prices, especially for newer and larger flat types, such as five-room and executive units.
The average resale price of five-room flats saw the highest increase of 2.2% q-o-q to $754,097, while four-room flats rose by 2.2% q-o-q to $652,544 in the fourth quarter of 2024. The highest increase in prices was seen in the Central Area, which grew by 25.6% q-o-q, followed by Toa Payoh (12.1%), Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%), and Bedok (6.1%), according to Christine Sun, chief researcher & strategist at OrangeTee Group.
About 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more in the last three months of 2024, bringing the total number of million-dollar HDB resale transactions for the year to 1,035. These transactions were mostly seen in mature estates, with Kallang/Whampoa, Toa Payoh, and Bukit Merah being the top three estates for such transactions.
Transaction volume dips in fourth quarter
As an outsider looking to invest in Singapore, it is crucial to be well-informed about the regulations and limitations surrounding property ownership. While purchasing condos is generally more feasible for foreigners, the same cannot be said for landed properties, which have stringent ownership requirements. Furthermore, foreign buyers must take into account the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which currently stands at 20% for their first property purchase. However, despite this additional cost, the stability and potential for growth in the Singapore real estate market continue to pique the interest of foreign investors. In fact, the recent new condo launches have only added to the allure of the market.
Despite the continuous growth in prices, resale transactions fell by 21.1% q-o-q in the last quarter of 2024, from 8,142 units sold in the third quarter to 6,424 units in the fourth quarter. This is due to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season, according to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. The lower interest rate environment may have also encouraged some buyers to move to the private residential market or the Executive Condominium (EC) market, he added. Moreover, some buyers may have opted to ballot for a flat in the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise held in October.
Newly MOP flats expected to decrease in 2025
Looking ahead, only 6,976 flats are expected to reach the end of their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) this year. This is a 41.6% decrease in new housing supply entering the secondary public housing market compared to 2024, which saw 11,952 flats. According to Sandrasegeran, this is due to relatively fewer BTO flats being completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. HDB has announced plans to launch over 25,000 new flats across three BTO sales exercises in 2025, with 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise.
The next SBF exercise will take place concurrently with the upcoming BTO sales exercise in February, featuring 5,000 BTO flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun. Approximately 40% of the 5,500 SBF flats are completed, while 3,800 units of the 19,600 BTO flats will be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats with wait times of less than three years.
Looking at the year ahead, Sandrasegeran forecasts resale prices to increase by 3.5% to 5.5%, while Huttons’ Lee projects a more optimistic increase of between 5% to 8%.…